Thankfully it seems that the rain will mostly stay away today at Santa Anita and not mess things up here. I think this is a better than average Pick 5 sequence with some more challenging races than are often found early in the card there. And with the low takeout it is certainly worth a try. Here is where I am looking:
Race 1
A nice 3yo turf route going nine furlongs, I am not getting real creative here with the top three morning line choices (which at Santa Anita just means I am in agreement with Jon White’s opinion of the race). I like ROCKIN ROBIN and BLUE LAW a bit better than MILTON here and will use them as A choices and the latter as a C. I don’t think there will be a lot of pace in this race and these are the most talented in here and project to be near the front. #11 NAKAMOTO is a bit of a concern but I think what might be perceived as a troubled trip last time wasn’t that much to blame for his ninth place finish.
Race 2
The single in the sequence comes here as PATRIOTIC BROTHER appears to be the clear class here and to not get compromised by any goings-on as far as pace and such.
Race 3
For a six horse claiming field at Santa Anita this race is a little tougher to project than normal. SACRED OVATION looks like the clear speed here and is talented enough to take it from there. NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR has been running very well in two starts for Peter Miller since getting claimed for $8,000 and now continues the climb to $25k this time. Bested Sacred Ovation in the last race by a couple lengths. I’ll also toss in OLIGARCH as a C as he ought to be competitive.
Race 4
Toughest race of the sequence and just a really good allowance contest on the downhill course. MARGIE’S MINUTE has held well in some hotly run races on this course and may have it easier up front this time and steal it. If that happens at something like 12-1 and we’re still alive then things will get exciting. SMOOVE IT gets the coveted route-to-downhill move and has been running well and will be poised to strike from the middle. And ANNIVERSARY KITTY won a Cal-bred race off the bench last time and looked to have done it with ease. May blow these ones away too and at the 7-2 morning line would be a great bet. I’m also dabbling with BRESCAT, who was tough to get a read on in his US debut last time but had some excuses. The rail is a tough post but he may freak. Also HUMORISTICA, a debut winner for Richard Mandella last time. I think this horse has a lot of will, but is likely just not quite good enough for this field. But I am not sure enough of that to toss.
Race 5
I’m not completely convinced that MASOCHISTIC is going to get a paid workout here and to beat him in this spot if we’re fortunate enough to be in it would do wonders for the payout. He’s an A but so is AIRFOIL, third off the layoff with some nice races to run back to. This is likely to be where it happens if it does. RENO REBEL as a C is not without hope, particularly if Masochistic puts in a clunker and things are a bit easier up front than expected.
Altogether, playing everything for $0.50, this ticket comes in at $38. Hopefully we get some action out of it and not dropped at the start.
jayeetee3kay 