Almost certainly, the best way to bet on the future winner of the Kentucky Derby is just to blindly bet whatever decent sum you’re willing to be apart from for some months on the field in the first pool. Every year. The return on that must be nice over the long haul. But that is no fun. Fun is putting some fun money on a horse or two and getting to root for them in their prep races and such.
Last year was the first time I bet in a future pool, and I think it was the second pool where I put $20 on TONALIST. If you’re familiar with the sport you know that I got back nothing on this and that Tonalist didn’t even run in a prep race, much less the Derby. But once he got over the lung infection that kept him out of the Wood Memorial, he put up a very nice campaign and it’s a point of pride that at least I picked a horse who turned out to be one of the elite three year olds of 2014.
Even though I despise Ken Ramsey, the other horse I was most interested in betting was BOBBY’S KITTEN. This was not based on his performance but simply some notion that he got the Bobby Frankel name put on him for being a stellar propsect and he was on the Derby trail when really grass would seem to be his best surface. The issues for Bobby’s Kitten extended beyond just the surface he raced on, but still this was a mistake I went on to make in 2015.
The mistake this year was not a well-researched one. I simply loved IMPERIA when I saw him in the flesh at the last Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita. Definitely the most beautiful horse I saw that weekend, and one who seemed to exude class. His result in the Juvenile Turf wasn’t great but there was a traffic excuse. So I really just bet Imperia for fun, but nevertheless, this is a grass horse being put on the Derby trail just because he is talented and not because it suits him (to the extent it suits any thoroughbred).
And so yesterday, all geared up for the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, Imperia ran flatly. In position but unable to get motoring on the dirt, much like in his second place to EL KABEIR in his previous race.
Still love Imperia, to the point that I hope this experiment ends here and he gets back on grass before his career is wiped out. But no more money on turf horses for the Kentucky Derby.
jayeetee3kay 