Sunday Longshot at Tampa Bay Downs

I happened to catch her last race at Tampa on Valentine’s Day and identified TRAVINIA as a severe hanger who will not go to the front no matter what. That was her first race with blinkers and she still glued herself to the butt of the last horse to pass and followed her to the finish line. I have been waiting for her to come back so I can try to make some money as she’d probably be a short price.

And here she is, in the third race on Sunday.

The connections move her from grass routes to a dirt sprint, possibly because Tampa doesn’t run maiden claimers on grass for anything less than $16,000. That may not even be true, but it sounds right. So even off of decent finishes, Travinia has gone $25k–>$16k–>$16k–>$8k. I think the barn knows there is something off with this one too.

But she is listed as the 7-5 morning line favorite, and looking at this deep field it is easy to see why. This is some hot garbage, as an $8,000 maiden claimer would figure to be. Travinia’s speed figures tower over them. Can she even run down to this? Sure she can. But who can put themselves in a position to be in front of her for her to hang onto?

VEGAS HEAT and EXCLUSIVE UTE are the most logical ones, but each has enough red flags and doesn’t seem likely to be all that big a price.

One who does stand a chance of going off at a big number is ATOMIC TANGERINE. 20-1 on the morning line, and not without her own issues, but at 20-1 I’ll be more forgiving. She’s lightly raced, which is partially due to issues like 105 days between debut and second start, and 147 days between second start and this one. But the dirt debut was without Lasix, and she bled. Then, adding Lasix, she was a part of a pretty hot pace going long on grass in that second start. And her dam’s dam had some main track success which she goes back to here (HOPE FOR A BREEZE was even the 1992 Sovereign Award winner as champion three year old filly). Her workouts coming into this race are essentially standouts for this group.

She isn’t a very good racehorse, but she doesn’t have to be to win this. And if she is able to hang tough on the front here, she can be the one that Travinia locks onto.

Handicapping Practice – Battaglia Memorial Stakes

Saturday’s John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park was not a race I did any handicapping for. All I knew going in was that THE GREAT WAR would be the big favorite. He put in a clunker, probably from some combination of bleeding and not being best at two turns. He hung with the winner, ROYAL SON, until they came off that second turn and then faded fast to finish last of ten.

The point of this post is to take some opinions put forth on Twitter prior to the race by the stellar Doug Salvatore (@DougieSal) and look back to see what he saw so that we may stand a chance at seeing it ourselves prior to a race and make some money. Doug made cases for Royal Son, PEPPER ROANI, and TASK FORCE GLORY. The first two there made up the exacta in the race, which paid $235.80 for a $2 wager.

Taking things in the order they were posted on Twitter, here is what Doug had to say about Pepper Roani:

Pepper Roani (12/1 ML) improved tremendously with blinkers last time. You'll never see a more strung-out field than his maiden win last-out.

— Doug Salvatore (@DougieSal) February 28, 2015

Watching Pepper Roani’s last several attempts to break maiden, I thought I could see how the blinkers benefited him. He seemed to get a good jump out of the gate but then settle behind horses. I assumed that in the maiden win he would show more speed and make the lead and stay there. Not so. The first part of the race played out like the others. The difference was that in the stretch run, instead of running on to get close and then looking to tuck in behind the winner or at least hang, he kept going. That is certainly another way blinkers can bring about success. However, I don’t know that I would have given proper credit to the blinkers watching on my own. I do think that had I handicapped that maiden win I would have thought the blinkers stood a good chance to really help him, but just been wrong about how they would. And then still, perhaps after the race, consider myself fortunate even though the blinkers didn’t change his action at the start much. So I have to be more aware of the different ways blinkers help.

Now for Royal Son:

Royal Son, gets 1st blinkers and may get loose on an early lead if The Great War is rated.

— Doug Salvatore (@DougieSal) February 28, 2015

In this case, the more conventional wisdom on the addition of blinkers. And watching the races of Royal Son, it’s not difficult to see how this could have benefited him in this way. He got absolutely dusted late in an August race at Saratoga by EL KABEIR, but they went real fast together for the first half mile that day, at 44.98. Royal Son had the early speed and a field where he could gain an advantage, and he did, even as The Great War did rush out to the front to keep from getting hung wide from that far outside post. He did then settle and Royal Son wasn’t exactly clear, but in a slightly better position than he had been without blinkers. Had The Great War not faltered badly, it would have been interesting to see how things went.

And Task Force Glory:

Finally, Task Force Glory was a very impressive maiden winner two-back. Ran better than looked last time, from extreme outside post.

— Doug Salvatore (@DougieSal) February 28, 2015

These things are both true (another El Camino Real Derby runner pops up in the allowance race, INDIANAUGHTY). In the race last night, he was involved in some traffic going into the first turn, but also involved was Pepper Roani, and while they ran together down the backstretch, it was the latter who turned it on big on the turn while TFG was a bit flat. Lots of possible reasons for that. Big chunks of synthetic were flying back from the front yesterday, and may have really bothered him. The strong finish from back of the pack is probably another big plus for Pepper Roani, as runners in the first two spots early had much success on the entire card. So it may well be a matter of really needing to upgrade Pepper Roani’s marks for the place finish versus dismissing Task Force Glory for not making a run. In the end, it’s a Ramsey horse not winning, which is a good thing.

All in all, I think reviewing Pepper Roani’s resume going into the race and how blinkers affected him stands the best chance to improve my handicapping. If I come across a spot where I see something similar in a race I do handicap ahead of time, I’ll make sure to note it on the blog.

Santa Anita Pick 5 for February 28, 2015

Thankfully it seems that the rain will mostly stay away today at Santa Anita and not mess things up here. I think this is a better than average Pick 5 sequence with some more challenging races than are often found early in the card there. And with the low takeout it is certainly worth a try. Here is where I am looking:

Race 1

A nice 3yo turf route going nine furlongs, I am not getting real creative here with the top three morning line choices (which at Santa Anita just means I am in agreement with Jon White’s opinion of the race). I like ROCKIN ROBIN and BLUE LAW a bit better than MILTON here and will use them as A choices and the latter as a C. I don’t think there will be a lot of pace in this race and these are the most talented in here and project to be near the front. #11 NAKAMOTO is a bit of a concern but I think what might be perceived as a troubled trip last time wasn’t that much to blame for his ninth place finish.

Race 2

The single in the sequence comes here as PATRIOTIC BROTHER appears to be the clear class here and to not get compromised by any goings-on as far as pace and such.

Race 3 

For a six horse claiming field at Santa Anita this race is a little tougher to project than normal. SACRED OVATION looks like the clear speed here and is talented enough to take it from there. NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR has been running very well in two starts for Peter Miller since getting claimed for $8,000 and now continues the climb to $25k this time. Bested Sacred Ovation in the last race by a couple lengths. I’ll also toss in OLIGARCH as a C as he ought to be competitive.

Race 4

Toughest race of the sequence and just a really good allowance contest on the downhill course. MARGIE’S MINUTE has held well in some hotly run races on this course and may have it easier up front this time and steal it. If that happens at something like 12-1 and we’re still alive then things will get exciting. SMOOVE IT gets the coveted route-to-downhill move and has been running well and will be poised to strike from the middle. And ANNIVERSARY KITTY won a Cal-bred race off the bench last time and looked to have done it with ease. May blow these ones away too and at the 7-2 morning line would be a great bet. I’m also dabbling with BRESCAT, who was tough to get a read on in his US debut last time but had some excuses. The rail is a tough post but he may freak. Also HUMORISTICA, a debut winner for Richard Mandella last time. I think this horse has a lot of will, but is likely just not quite good enough for this field. But I am not sure enough of that to toss.

Race 5 

I’m not completely convinced that MASOCHISTIC is going to get a paid workout here and to beat him in this spot if we’re fortunate enough to be in it would do wonders for the payout. He’s an A but so is AIRFOIL, third off the layoff with some nice races to run back to. This is likely to be where it happens if it does. RENO REBEL as a C is not without hope, particularly if Masochistic puts in a clunker and things are a bit easier up front than expected.

Altogether, playing everything for $0.50, this ticket comes in at $38. Hopefully we get some action out of it and not dropped at the start.

HRTV Will Be Missed (Probably)

I am a successful cordcutter as of something like three months ago. Nothing special about it. Like many people, I had a few things I enjoyed watching but their cumulative entertainment value was not worth what the cable company charged once you get me to all the various tiers needed to capture everything I liked.

One of the things I liked was the chance to catch the morning show recently renamed The Player on HRTV, with Aaron Vercruysse (I am not even going to check if that’s the correct spelling) and Jeff Siegel at the desk and the effervescent Zoe Cadman providing reports from the Santa Anita rail.

I like to bet on the races but I liked how that team talked about the races more as a sport than a wagering opportunity, compared with their counterpart TVG. Not exclusively, of course, but they struck a good balance.

I liked Zoe’s personality. I liked Aaron making a daymaker out of any horse with four legs. I liked Jeff rocking back and forth in his chair at the start of the show like he had just snorted some lines.

Yet it was revealed this week that TVG is buying HRTV. I read a report that the plan may be to put the races from top tracks on TVG and the lesser ones on HRTV, allowing more races to be shown overall. Which to me doesn’t necessarily mean the end of HRTV’s on-air talent. But it also seems from some remarks I have seen on Twitter that said talent does not feel assured of continued employment. So it’s all up in the air.

Even though I no longer have HRTV access in my home, it would at least be nice to have the option of heading over to Grandma’s on a Saturday morning prior to a big day of racing to see what the gang is up to. It appears likely that option will disappear.

Kentucky Derby Lesson Learned

Almost certainly, the best way to bet on the future winner of the Kentucky Derby is just to blindly bet whatever decent sum you’re willing to be apart from for some months on the field in the first pool. Every year. The return on that must be nice over the long haul. But that is no fun. Fun is putting some fun money on a horse or two and getting to root for them in their prep races and such.

Last year was the first time I bet in a future pool, and I think it was the second pool where I put $20 on TONALIST. If you’re familiar with the sport you know that I got back nothing on this and that Tonalist didn’t even run in a prep race, much less the Derby. But once he got over the lung infection that kept him out of the Wood Memorial, he put up a very nice campaign and it’s a point of pride that at least I picked a horse who turned out to be one of the elite three year olds of 2014.

Even though I despise Ken Ramsey, the other horse I was most interested in betting was BOBBY’S KITTEN. This was not based on his performance but simply some notion that he got the Bobby Frankel name put on him for being a stellar propsect and he was on the Derby trail when really grass would seem to be his best surface. The issues for Bobby’s Kitten extended beyond just the surface he raced on, but still this was a mistake I went on to make in 2015.

The mistake this year was not a well-researched one. I simply loved IMPERIA when I saw him in the flesh at the last Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita. Definitely the most beautiful horse I saw that weekend, and one who seemed to exude class. His result in the Juvenile Turf wasn’t great but there was a traffic excuse. So I really just bet Imperia for fun, but nevertheless, this is a grass horse being put on the Derby trail just because he is talented and not because it suits him (to the extent it suits any thoroughbred).

And so yesterday, all geared up for the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, Imperia ran flatly. In position but unable to get motoring on the dirt, much like in his second place to EL KABEIR in his previous race.

Still love Imperia, to the point that I hope this experiment ends here and he gets back on grass before his career is wiped out. But no more money on turf horses for the Kentucky Derby.