Saturday’s John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park was not a race I did any handicapping for. All I knew going in was that THE GREAT WAR would be the big favorite. He put in a clunker, probably from some combination of bleeding and not being best at two turns. He hung with the winner, ROYAL SON, until they came off that second turn and then faded fast to finish last of ten.
The point of this post is to take some opinions put forth on Twitter prior to the race by the stellar Doug Salvatore (@DougieSal) and look back to see what he saw so that we may stand a chance at seeing it ourselves prior to a race and make some money. Doug made cases for Royal Son, PEPPER ROANI, and TASK FORCE GLORY. The first two there made up the exacta in the race, which paid $235.80 for a $2 wager.
Taking things in the order they were posted on Twitter, here is what Doug had to say about Pepper Roani:
Watching Pepper Roani’s last several attempts to break maiden, I thought I could see how the blinkers benefited him. He seemed to get a good jump out of the gate but then settle behind horses. I assumed that in the maiden win he would show more speed and make the lead and stay there. Not so. The first part of the race played out like the others. The difference was that in the stretch run, instead of running on to get close and then looking to tuck in behind the winner or at least hang, he kept going. That is certainly another way blinkers can bring about success. However, I don’t know that I would have given proper credit to the blinkers watching on my own. I do think that had I handicapped that maiden win I would have thought the blinkers stood a good chance to really help him, but just been wrong about how they would. And then still, perhaps after the race, consider myself fortunate even though the blinkers didn’t change his action at the start much. So I have to be more aware of the different ways blinkers help.
Now for Royal Son:
In this case, the more conventional wisdom on the addition of blinkers. And watching the races of Royal Son, it’s not difficult to see how this could have benefited him in this way. He got absolutely dusted late in an August race at Saratoga by EL KABEIR, but they went real fast together for the first half mile that day, at 44.98. Royal Son had the early speed and a field where he could gain an advantage, and he did, even as The Great War did rush out to the front to keep from getting hung wide from that far outside post. He did then settle and Royal Son wasn’t exactly clear, but in a slightly better position than he had been without blinkers. Had The Great War not faltered badly, it would have been interesting to see how things went.
And Task Force Glory:
These things are both true (another El Camino Real Derby runner pops up in the allowance race, INDIANAUGHTY). In the race last night, he was involved in some traffic going into the first turn, but also involved was Pepper Roani, and while they ran together down the backstretch, it was the latter who turned it on big on the turn while TFG was a bit flat. Lots of possible reasons for that. Big chunks of synthetic were flying back from the front yesterday, and may have really bothered him. The strong finish from back of the pack is probably another big plus for Pepper Roani, as runners in the first two spots early had much success on the entire card. So it may well be a matter of really needing to upgrade Pepper Roani’s marks for the place finish versus dismissing Task Force Glory for not making a run. In the end, it’s a Ramsey horse not winning, which is a good thing.
All in all, I think reviewing Pepper Roani’s resume going into the race and how blinkers affected him stands the best chance to improve my handicapping. If I come across a spot where I see something similar in a race I do handicap ahead of time, I’ll make sure to note it on the blog.
jayeetee3kay 